12 Team Leagues
Closers
* Get 2 solid Closers (solid meaning he definitely has the job, and make at least 1 of them one of my top 9 solid closer picks) and either another scrub closer or closer in waiting later in the draft (total of 3 closers if possible). It’s a big advantage if you can manage to draft 3 closers, but it’s tough because there’s only 28 closers this year and if each drafted gets 2, that’s 24 closers already…so only 4 teams will have 3 closers and they have a distinct advantage there. When I talk about drafting 2 solid closers, I’m not at all saying you should be the first person in your league to draft a closer, nor should you ever pass on a top starter for one. For instance, there’s no closer I’d draft ahead of any of my top 40 starters. You want to build up a lead in saves early in the season so you can ditch closers and use starters (especially 2-starters) in the last month when all the young studs come up from the minors and it’s too late for other players to catch up in saves – but not too late for you to pile on Wins and Ks. Teams often don’t use their closers in the last week or two unless they’re in contention for the playoffs (teams that are out of it and teams that have clinched have no reason to use their closer much). Also, you never know with closers what’ll happen, so you don’t want to assume you’re going to catch up later because closers get injured, lose their job, etc so it’s good to get a lead early when you know you’re getting what you need. Plus starters often get off to a slow start, but later on in the season you have a better idea of what you’re getting from them, so it’s good to use more closers early on.
*It is especially important to draft closers in 12-team leagues where you’re not only in a league, but also in an overall pool because to win the overall you MUST be balanced… you cannot “punt” any categories, like saves for example.
*12-team leagues are more difficult to balance regarding how many closers/starters to use. If you use 3, you’re going to be behind in Wins/Ks. Essentilly what you have to do is start 3 closers for the first half of the season when you can, then put one on your bench when you have a lead in SV and put on an extra starter for the rest of the way to make up the Wins and Ks.
*Drafting closers also helps you save money because the #1 thing owners blow their FAAB money on is closers… they’ll usually go for anywhere between $100-$400 depending on how aggressive your league is, what time of the year it is (early/middle/late), etc. You don’t want to be caught up in a bidding war for closers, so it’s best to just set yourself up in saves in the draft.
*If you find yourself needing saves, keep an eye on who’s next in line to close for teams, and then speculatively pick up guys for $1-2 some weeks and see if you get lucky… this is a much better strategy than waiting for a guy to be anointed a new closer and dropping a third of your FAAB budget on him. You’ll really need that money later when an established player (usually a hitter because you won’t see those too often) pops up on the waiver wire, such as Mike Morse, Brett Lawrie, and Desmond Jennings did last season.
Streaming 2-Starters
*Streaming starters is harder in 12-team leagues as well because you won’t have the same kind of quality options available on the waiver wire that you’d have in 10-team leagues… so be careful. Only stream in certain match-ups that are recommended and “safe.” I don’t usually stream unless it’s late in the season and I need more Wins/Ks and there’s a plethora of new talented young pitchers up from the minors. You need to be careful when streaming that you don’t give back the points you’re gaining in Wins and Ks by sabotaging your ERA and WHIP, which can certainly happen when you start questionable pitchers just because they’re 2-starting.
*It’s a good idea to just keep an extra bench spot for a starter instead of a hitter (instead of streaming a lot of guys). This makes having hitters with flexibility more important (guys who are eligible at multiple positions).
*Here’s another tip, look ahead two weeks. Don’t pick up a starter the week that he 2-starts for $15-20, pick him up the week BEFORE he 2-starts for $1-2 and just hold him on your bench until you can use him. It’s a great way to beat your opponents to the punch while saving money. And, oh, hey… I just so happen to keep track of that for you on my site.
Taking Risks in the Draft
*Don’t draft as if you won’t ever drop anyone… don’t worry so much about having a backup at every position right off the bat… take the best player available, especially late in the draft as you can always pick up players when needed and drop the ones that don’t work out (example: someone drafting Alex Gordon for his upside at the end of the draft last year even if you didn’t need another OF). Just make sure you have every position filled. When you take a risk, try to take risks on positions that other players might be weak in anyways, so that you aren’t losing as much… if you end up with a crappy starting 1B it will hurt you a lot more than if you have a crappy Catcher because everyone else probably does too! Later in the draft, the opposite of what you do early in the draft applies: unknown quantities are a better pick than known mediocre quantities. This is how championships are won.
*Injury-prone players and health risks (such as Josh Johnson or Steven Strasburg, who has an innings limit) are still fairly valuable in 12-team formats, but it’s not as easy as picking someone up in a 10-team D&P league. If they are an OF or SP there should be decent replacement options, but other positions would be much more difficult to replace… I would de-value injury-prone players at positions other than SP and OF in 12-team formats much more than in 10-team leagues.
Catchers
In 2-catcher leagues, such as NFBC 12-team and 15-team leagues, having 2 good catchers is probably the biggest advantage you could have positionally because everyone else will likely have 1 mediocre and 1 borderline bad player starting there while you have 2 actual good players at Catcher. Carlos Santana, who plays everyday between C/1B/DH is especially valuable. This gives him a HUGE boost in counting stats over other catchers who get days off throughout the season. Santana could have late 2nd round value if he can hit for .260+ AVG. Napoli meanwhile could have 1st Round value if he plays every day between C/1B/DH this season. Catcher is by far the scarcest position (and it’s not even remotely close) in 2-catcher formats like NFBC.
Positional Scarcity
Positional Scarcity refers to the fact that some positions don’t have as many good players that qualify at certain positions compared to others. For instance, in 2012 (2-catcher leagues like NFBC), Catcher is the scarcest position (followed by SS, 3B, 2B, C, 1B, then OF). Positional Scarcity is real – fantasy baseball is relative… if I take 3rd Baseman A now, I can get Outfielder B later.. or I could take Outfielder C now and get 3rd Baseman D later… which combination of 3B and OF is better? Look for pockets of value: If a SP in the 6th round produces similar value to a starter in the 2nd round, draft other positions that that value can’t be found later in (like at 3B, SS, or C).
Tiers
Tiers are also important. If I miss Player A in round 9, will Player B in round 10 be MUCH worse? If there’s several guys left in a tier at a position, you probably don’t need to rush to draft one… but if there’s only 1 guy left in a tier at a position, then you need to place a higher priority on getting that player. Pay attention to the flow of the draft and don’t get caught on the wrong end of a run just because you think you should be able to wait on a player.
Draft Offense over Starting Pitching
*Draft offense over starting pitching. Make sure you get a few guys who you think should be aces, but it’s more important to get hitting because pitchers will be much easier to find later in the draft and throughout the season on the waiver wire. The easiest thing to find is starters, next is outfielders. At the end of the draft you don’t want to be looking for a MI… all that’s left are OF and SP… so draft your infield early even if there’s a slightly higher-rated OF or SP available, though don’t pass up elite OF studs who can help in all categories (Kemp/Upton/CarGo/etc).
*Never EVER draft a starter in the first 3 rounds unless we have someone like Pedro/Schilling/Big Unit circa 2000… which is to say HUGE strikeout numbers, fantastic ERA/WHIP, and lots of wins (they were dominant in 4 categories). The fact of the matter is that the very best SP can only ever contribute in 4 categories (ERA/WHIP/W/K) because they can’t get you saves. Meanwhile, most hitters you want to draft in the first 3 rounds will contribute in 5 categories, or at least be dominant in 4. Clayton Kershaw is the #1 rated SP and I wouldn’t take him until the 3rd round because while he gives you a fantastic ERA/WHIP, he doesn’t strike out like 10+ batters per 9 innings and his team isn’t that good offensively so you can’t even count on 20+ Wins – he’s not dominant in 4 categories. He’s dominant in 2, very very good in 1, and good in another – not good enough to replace a top-flight 1st/2nd round hitter. People drafting Justin Verlander in the 1st Round are out of their freaking minds.
1st Round Picks
Your 1st Round Pick MUST have 0 question marks… and if he does have a SLIGHT blemish, then he must make up for it with enormous upside and/or positional scarcity. For example, in 2010 I did not value AROD, Josh Hamilton, or Adrian Gonzalez as 1st Round picks based on their injury concerns. Now, it turned out that Gonzalez was fine as a first rounder, but AROD and Hamilton hurt themselves and had bad years for 1st round picks. In a draft I was in I chose Miguel Cabrera over Adrian Gonzalez because Cabrera had absolutely no question marks, he’s very healthy and has never really had an off year. The saying goes, “You can’t win a league in the first round, but you sure can lose it.” Shawn Childs called me conservative for doing so, as he took Adrian Gonzalez with the next pick. Don’t take your risks here, save them for later in the draft when the risk/reward differential is greater. I take plenty of risks, but missing on a 1st Round pick can sink a team.
Qualitative Categories vs. Counting Categories
*First of all, the qualitative categories are WHIP, ERA, and AVG. Counting Categories are every other category (W, K, SV, R, RBI, SB, HR). Not every category is created equally – some categories are more important than others. For instance, with starting pitchers, it’s more important to get pitchers with good ERA/WHIP than getting ones with more strikeouts and wins because you can chase Wins/Ks in free agency, but you can’t chase ERA/WHIP… once your quality stats (ERA/WHIP) have deteriorated they are very difficult to build back up, and it takes much longer to do so. The same goes for AVG with hitters… early on in the draft, I try to build a good team AVG because finding SB or HR guys is much easier than finding legitimate .300 hitters. Those great AVG hitters also allow you to take guys like Mark Reynolds and his .220 AVG and 40 HRs. AVG is also something you cannot chase in free agency like you can HR or SB. Now, again, this is not to say I’m looking to draft Placido Polanco over like Brett Lawrie or anything, but I’m just saying that guys who can provide elite AVG (while also giving you SB and/or HR too) are few and far between and will be a HUGE boon to your team.
Avoid Drafting “Judys”
*…at least early in drafts. You want to focus more on balanced (HR/SB) guys and power hitters than SB-only guys (Judys) because Judys are deficient in both HR AND RBI, whereas power hitters are usually productive in HR, RBI, and R. Later in the draft if you feel you need some steals, go ahead and draft a judy if you need one… just make sure your team is based on power hitters and balanced hitters. Also, SBs are much easier to pick up on the waiver wire than HRs.
Avoid Drafting Old/Young Players
*Don’t draft pitchers before age 23 or age 37+
*Avoid SB guys after 33, and don’t draft SB guys age 36+…power hitters around age 36-37 don’t fare too well either
*Try to draft pitchers ages 23-29 (especially 23-27)… they seem to fall off quite a bit around age 30-31
*Don’t expect much from hitters under the age of 23 (Jay Bruce his rookie year, Jason Heyward, etc – they don’t have a good track record)