Edwin Jackson – 2012 Profiles and Projections

Edwin Jackson (28)

W – 11

ERA – 3.75

WHIP – 1.38

K/9 – 6.9

Statistics

On his 7th team in the last 8 years, Edwin has the good fortune to be returning to the NL to play for the Nationals.  Edwin is a hard guy to figure out, probably at least in part due to his nomad-like existence.  He split each of the last 2 seasons with 1 AL team and 1 NL team – and his stats were better in the AL for some reason.  Maybe it’s just a small sample, but Jackson’s strikeout rate and control have been up-and-down the last few years and it’s hard to gauge the likelihood that he will show any consistency whatsoever.  There’s no questioning his talent… anyone with a 94.5 MPH fastball should have some success as long as he has a little control, but Edwin hasn’t really capitalized thus far in his career.  The Nationals think he may have been tipping his pitches, so if he can find a way not to do that, he could have a lot more success.  His career-best WHIP is 1.26 (2009), showing you what kind of damage he can do to your team WHIP if he isn’t on top of his game.  He also really struggles vs lefties (they hit .304 against him in 2011).  But, if he can put together a season where his strikeout rate is 7+ K/9, walk rate is under 3 BB/9, and hit rate is under 9 H/9, then he could have a breakout year.  After all, he put up a 3.79 ERA despite a .330 BABIP, which was the 5th highest BABIP in the MLB last season, and it’s sure to improve in 2012.  He has shown the ability to give up fewer HRs the past 2 seasons (down to 0.72 HR/9 in 2011) while using fewer fastballs and more sliders in each of the past 3 seasons.  While a full breakout is within the realm of possibility, don’t count on it.  Jackson is a nomad; they don’t settle down.