Erik Bedard – 2012 Profiles and Projections

Erik Bedard (33)

W – 8

ERA – 3.30

WHIP – 1.26

K/9 – 9.4

Statistics

The issue with Bedard isn’t with his skills… rather, it’s with his health.  He’s never reached 200 innings in his career, and he’s only pitched more than 142 innings twice.  Count on him for about 100 very good innings, and anything beyond that is just a bonus.  The move to the NL will increase his strikeout rate for sure, but should also help out his ERA and WHIP – despite the fact that Seattle’s Park Factor for Runs is lower than Pittsburgh’s because Pittsburgh’s Park Factor for HRs is significantly lower than Seattle’s.  One of the problems with Bedard, other than his health, is the fact that he walks too many batters (3.34 BB/9 in 2011) and is inefficient as a result (17.2 P/IP in 2011) – this will limit his Wins potential.  He also has a swinging strike rate that has been on the decline for 3 straight seasons (though shortened seasons) and was down to 7.9% in 2011 – but I expect that to improve in the NL in 2012.