- *These rankings are in progress… do not use them as is*
- Albert Pujols
- Joey Votto
- Prince Fielder
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Allen Craig (1B/OF)
- Eric Hosmer
- Billy Butler
- Carlos Santana (C/1B)
- Joe Mauer (C/1B)
- Paul Konerko
- Edwin Encarnacion
- Freddie Freeman
- Mark Trumbo (1B/OF)
- Mike Napoli (C/1B)
- Lance Berkman
- Michael Cuddyer (1B/OF)
- Ike Davis
- Michael Young (1B/3B)
- Adam Lind
- Buster Posey (C/1B)
- Nick Swisher (1B/OF)
- Mark Reynolds
- Kendrys Morales
- Adam Dunn
- Adam LaRoche
- Ryan Howard
- Corey Hart (1B/OF)
- Anthony Rizzo
- Kevin Youkilis (1B/3B)
- Justin Morneau
- Chris Davis (1B/OF)
- Mark Teixeira
- Mitch Moreland
- Garrett Jones (1B/OF)
- Carlos Pena
- Yonder Alonso
- James Loney
- Jeff Keppinger (1B/2B/3B)
- Logan Morrison (1B/OF)
- Brandon Moss (1B/OF)
- Juan Rivera (1B/OF)
- Justin Smoak
- Chris Carter
- Todd Frazier (1B/3B)
- Matt Carpenter (1B/3B/OF)
- Tyler Colvin (1B/OF)
- Brandon Belt
- Chris Parmelee
- Brett Wallace
- Mike Olt
- Matt Adams
Key
Bold = Skills Risk – Could lose job/PT as result
Blue = Not qualified at 1B yet (though expected to after 10 games)
Red = Injury Risk
Using These Rankings: As with all of my rankings, just because a player is rated #11 doesn’t make him a better pick than #12 – it depends on the make-up of your team. A good example here is that guys like Mark Reynolds (#19) and Carlos Pena (#32) should only be drafted by those who have good team AVG and need power, otherwise they could wreck your team. #20 Lucas Duda is a better balanced player than Mark Reynolds and far less risky, though he also lacks Reynolds’ monster power and upside. Also, these rankings are heavily based on positional scarcity… so anyone qualifying at multiple positions gets a bump in value, especially if it’s at Catcher or 3B – which is why Napoli (#6) is rated above Teixeira (#7). If you’re simply looking to draft a 1B, then Teixeira is a better pick than Napoli, however Napoli’s Catcher eligibility makes him more valuable overall than Teixeira at 1B (though you would obviously be playing Napoli at Catcher). It’s a good idea to use the Tiers more than just the number rankings because, for example, there isn’t much difference in value between #28 Chris Davis and #31 Mitch Moreland, who are all in the same Tier, but there is a fairly sizeable difference in value between #15 Ike Davis and #17 Adam Lind, who are in different Tiers. This is merely an overarching look at the Top 1B for 2012 based on the combination of their projected stats, health, upside, risk, playing time, job security, and where they hit in the lineup. The table below breaks that all down. Rankings are fluid and subject to change between now and Opening Day so check back often to see which starters might be moving up or down the list.
*The “Health”, “Upside”, “Risk,” “(Job) Security,” and “PT” (Playing Time) categories are rated on a scale from 1-5, with 5 being high and 1 being low. So 1 Health = not healthy, 5 Upside = high upside, 3 Risk = medium amount of risk, etc. “Health” relates to both current health and overall career health. “Upside” relates to that player’s upside comparative to his projected stats, not upside overall. “Risk” relates to skills risk, so likelihood that the player underachieves his projected stats and by how much (so a rating of 5 means that player has a decent chance to drastically underachieve his projected stats) – note risk does not encompass health risk – that is obviously covered in the “Health” category. “Security” is how likely that player is to hold onto his job this season. “PT” is how often that player will play – thus a player with a 3 in PT is likely a platoon player. A player with a 4 in PT is someone who will play close to every day, but get some games off due to match-ups, health, etc. Then there’s “Lineup” – this just tells you where that hitter is projected to hit in the lineup; “4″ = hitting 4th in the lineup.